|
|
||||||
|
Articles |
||||||
|
Forecast - International Tourist Arrivals to 2010
Total World
International visitor arrivals to New Zealand grew by 2.9% in 2003, following an increase of 7.1% in 2002. Recent world events, including SARS, the Iraq War and September 11 have all had a negative impact on international long haul travel.
However, the New Zealand market has fared better than most during this period, once again demonstrating its ability to recover quickly from external shocks.
Confidence in the aviation industry is gradually being restored, and preliminary evidence suggests a return to long-term growth rates for visitor arrivals within 12-18 months.
Total arrivals to New Zealand are expected to increase by an average of 5.8% per annum over the forecast period. At this rate total arrivals will reach 2.34m in 2004, 2.74m in 2007 and 3.12m by 2010. This represents an overall increase of 1.02m arrivals over the next 7 years, or 48%.
Australia
Australia has always been New Zealand's largest inbound market.
Arrivals from Australia peaked in 2003 at 702,000, accounting for 33% of total arrivals to New Zealand. The substantial increase in capacity and subsequent reduction in airfares on Tasman routes has stimulated significant trans-Tasman activity in the past few months. The entry of value-based airlines such as Pacific Blue suggest that low airfares may be sustainable long-term.
Visitor arrivals from Australia are expected to increase by an average of 4.8 % per annum over the forecast period, with much of the growth being realised in 2004.
Australian arrivals are expected to reach 805,000 in 2004, 890,000 in 2007 and 973,000 by 2010. This represents an overall increase of 271,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 39%.
Arrivals from the United States and Canada comprised 94% (252,000) of total arrivals from the Americas region in 2003.
The slowdown in the United States economy; combined with the ever-present threat of terrorism; continues to impact negatively on the long-haul travel market out of the Americas.
However, the New Zealand inbound market has not been significantly affected by these events. In fact, New Zealand seems to have benefited from its geographic isolation and recognition as a safe and American friendly long-haul destination.
Even the strong New Zealand dollar has done little to curb visitor arrivals from the lucrative Americas market. Visitor arrivals from the Americas are expected to increase by an average of 3.9% per annum over the forecast period.
At this rate arrivals from the Americas will reach 278,000 in 2004, 313,000 in 2007 and 348,000 by 2010. This represents an overall increase of 81,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 31%. The relatively slow growth rates will reduce the Americas’ share of visitor arrivals from 13% in 2003 to 11% in 2010.
Japan
After experiencing strong growth in the 1980s and early 1990s, Japanese visitor arrivals declined in the late 1990s due to economic difficulties and an apparent reduction in marketing effort and coordination. Strong growth in 2002 was curtailed by SARS in 2003, reducing Japanese arrivals to 1995-levels. However, Japan is expected to re-emerge as one of New Zealand's leading inbound markets, and preliminary data to May 2004 suggests that a strong recovery is in progress.
Visitor arrivals from Japan are expected to increase by an average of 5.1% per annum over the forecast period. At this rate arrivals from Japan will reach 167,000 in 2004, 194,000 in 2007 and 214,000 by 2010. This represents an overall increase of 63,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 42%.
Japan’s market share is expected to remain unchanged at 7% across the forecast period.
Arrivals from the fast growing North-East Asia region fell by 9.4% in 2003 due to the SARS epidemic, following an increase of 22.5% in 2002.
The largest markets in the North-East Asia region are South Korea and China, both of which have grown strongly over the past decade. There is still considerable growth potential in this region, particularly in China.
The recent downturn in the education market is likely to have a short-term impact on both the education and VFR markets, but the long-term growth prospects remain strong.
Visitor arrivals from North-East Asia are expected to rebound to an alltime high of 265,000 in 2004, 362,000 in 2007 and 441,000 by 2010. This represents an average growth rate of 9.7% per annum over the forecast period, and an overall increase of 211,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 92%.
This level of growth will increase North-East Asia’s share of visitor arrivals from 11% in 2002 to 14% in 2010.
Other Asia
Arrivals from the Rest of Asia fell by 7.2% in 2003 due to the SARS epidemic, following an increase of 9.1% in 2002.
The largest markets in the Rest of Asia region are Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, and there is still considerable growth potential in these markets and also in India, which is largely untapped.
However, some of the countries in this region suffer from political instability, and this, more than economic drivers, will influence growth out of this region in the short-term.
Visitor arrivals from the Rest of Asia are expected to recover to an all time high of 125,000 in 2004, 156,000 in 2007 and 189,000 by 2010. This represents an average growth rate of 8.3% per annum over the forecast period, and an overall increase of 81,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 74%.
This level of growth will increase the Rest of Asia’s share of visitor arrivals from 5% in 2002 to 6% in 2010.
UK/Nordic/Ireland
Arrivals from the United Kingdom comprised 86% of total arrivals from the UK/Nordic/Ireland region in 2003.
Growth in arrivals from this region has been strong and consistent, averaging 9.8% per annum over the past seven years.
The UK/Nordic/Ireland region includes some of New Zealand’s most mature and diverse markets, and this is reflected in the strong and sustained growth in visitor arrivals in recent years.
There is a particularly strong VFR market, which can be attributed to the high migration rates between the United Kingdom and New Zealand, and the ease with which short-term work permits can be acquired. Visitor arrivals from this region are expected to increase by an average of 7.0% per annum over the forecast period. At this rate arrivals from UK/Nordic/Ireland will reach 341,000 in 2004, 419,000 by 2007 and 495,000 by 2010.
This represents an overall increase of 187,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 61%. The UK/Nordic/Ireland share of visitor arrivals to New Zealand is expected to increase slightly from 15% in 2003 to 16% by 2010.
Other Europe
Arrivals from the Rest of Europe increased by 5.6% in 2003,following an increase of 4.2% in 2002. The main markets in the Rest of Europe region are Germany (36%), Euro 7 (26%) and the Netherlands (18%), all of which are quite mature.
The
German market has stagnated in recent years, but reasonably strong growth is
predicted over the forecast period. The positive exposure that New Zealand has
gained through the Lord of the Rings,
Visitor arrivals from the Other Europe region are expected to increase by an average of 4.3% per annum over the forecast period. At this rate arrivals from the Rest of Europe will reach 152,000 in 2004, 173,000 in 2007 and 196,000 by 2010.
This represents an overall increase of 50,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 35%. This level of growth will reduce the Rest of Europe’s share of visitor arrivals from 7% in 2003 to 6% in 2010.
Rest of World
Arrivals from the Rest of the World are dominated by the Pacific Islands (44%), South Africa (8%) and the Middle East (7%), and have grown by an average of 4.1% per annum over the past 7 years.
Arrivals from the Rest of the World declined by 1.9% in 2003 due to a variety of factors, including SARS, the Iraq conflict, global terrorism, economic recession and political unrest, but a strong recovery is expected in 2004.
Many of the markets in the Rest of the World grouping are located in areas of social and/or political instability, and therefore tend to be more heavily influenced by adverse world events than New Zealand’s other markets. The main exception is the Pacific region, which has a strong and stable VFR component due to New Zealand’s large Pacific Island population.
Visitor arrivals from the Rest of the World are expected to increase to 206,000 in 2004, 235,000 in 2007 and 264,000 by 2010. This represents an average growth rate of 4.7% per annum over the forecast period, and an overall increase of 72,000 arrivals over the next 7 years, or 38%.
The Rest of the World’s share of visitor arrivals to New Zealand is expected to fall slightly from 9% in 2003 to 8% by 2010.
Source: Tourism NZ Research Council
|
||||||